Volatility Regimes
Backtesting Ethereum: How Often Does ETH Drop 5% in a Day?
While working with the TerraM trading bot, I conducted a backtest to quantify the frequency of significant daily drawdowns over the past 365 days (May 4, 2025 – May 3, 2026). Specifically, I analyzed how often the daily price change exceeded -5% or more. The results are notable.
The dataset is based on historical price data sourced from CoinMarketCap, with calculations performed in Google Sheets. Daily performance was measured as the percentage change between the open and close prices.
Out of 365 trading days—reflecting the continuous nature of crypto markets—194 days closed…
Ep 10: Crypto Options Portfolio Reaches $124.02
On October 26, 2023, the portfolio finished the week at $124.02, up $21.34 from $102.68. The reported weekly change was 20.78%, and the journal records the $21.34 as options gains.
It was another fast week for the portfolio. I am not trying to explain the whole result with one headline. Fast moves can help one position and pressure another, which is why the work stays the same: keep the risk in view and do not get careless after a good result.
Getting above $120 only a week after crossing $100 feels good. The account is still small, and that is exactly why I need to stay…
Ep 9: TerraMatris Passes $100 With Options Income
On October 19, 2023, the portfolio crossed $100 for the first time, reaching $102.68. It was up $9.82 from $92.86, a reported change of 10.58%. The $9.82 was recorded as options income.
Passing $100 is a small milestone, but I am not treating it as a finish line. The portfolio started with $5.38, so the change is visible. It does not change the risk in the options positions or make a double-digit week normal.
I was focused on the work in front of me: manage the options positions, take premium where the trade makes sense, and do not let a good number turn into a reason to…
Ep 8: Portfolio Passes $90 With Another Options Week
On October 12, 2023, the portfolio moved from $80.43 to $92.86. The reported change was 15.45%, with $12.43 in options income.
Another positive week does not make the risk disappear. Premium can look easy right before conditions change, so I am keeping the same attention on the next decision.
I am happy with the move above $90, but the important part is that the portfolio kept growing without changing the basic approach. The account is still small, so the percentage is less interesting to me than the $12.43 added and the fact that the next decision still has to stand on its…
Ep 7: TerraMatris Portfolio Reaches $80.43
On October 5, 2023, the portfolio reached $80.43, a reported gain of 25.26%. Options income came to $16.22.
The result reflects both continued options income and better movement in the underlying positions. That is encouraging, but it is not a reason to forget how thin the market still feels. When liquidity is light, a position can become harder to adjust exactly when a trade stops behaving.
I am pleased to see the account move past $80, especially after starting with $5.38 in Ep 1. The job has not changed: keep selling options with discipline, manage the positions actively,…
Ep 6: Another Week of ETH Options Income, Portfolio at $64.21
On September 28, 2023, the portfolio reached $64.21. That is a 22.33% increase from last week's $52.49, with $11.72 in options premium collected.
The weekly result came from options premium. I am trying to build the account through repeated, controlled decisions rather than one oversized bet.
It is tempting to look at a 22% week and call it proof that the process works. At this account size, that would be the wrong lesson. The useful part is that the balance grew and I stayed with the plan. The next week can look very different.
TerraMTerraM held around $0.86. It is…
Ep 5: Options Premium Pushes TerraMatris to $52.49
On September 21, 2023, TerraMatris closed the week at $52.49, up $12.12 from $40.37. The reported weekly change was 30.02%, and the increase came from options premium collected during the period.
That is a good result, but the account is still small enough that twelve dollars can make a big percentage difference. I am keeping the focus on the actual cash added to the portfolio and on whether the next setup is worth taking.
The options approach is doing what I wanted it to do in these early weeks: give the portfolio a way to collect premium while I build capital gradually. It…
Ep 4: Ethereum Options Premium Builds the Portfolio to $40.37
On September 14, 2023, the portfolio reached $40.37, up $4.48 from $35.89. That works out to 12.48%. The account is still tiny, so I am keeping the percentage in perspective. A few dollars move the number a lot at this stage.
The early work is still centered on Ethereum options premium. I am not trying to predict every move in ETH. I am looking for premium that makes sense against the risk, then keeping the proceeds in the portfolio instead of treating a good week as money already won.
The goal is to keep making reasonable decisions, not to manufacture a smooth return line.…
Ep 3: A Quiet Week for Ethereum Options, Portfolio at $35.89
On September 7, 2023, the TerraMatris portfolio moved from $33.66 to $35.89, a gain of $2.23 or 6.63%.
Ethereum was the main focus again. It was a quieter week for the portfolio, but selling options still means staying alert to the risk behind the premium. I was actively managing those positions within the risk limits I had set.
The smaller gain is fine. I would rather keep the process steady than turn a small account into a race for the biggest weekly percentage. Last week's move was much larger in percentage terms because the portfolio had started from almost nothing.
…Ep 2: Ethereum Options Income Takes the Portfolio to $33.66
On August 31, 2023, the second week moved the portfolio from $5.38 to $33.66. That is an increase of $28.28, or 525.7%. The percentage looks wild because the starting balance was $5.38. The dollar amount is the more useful number.
Most of the week came from short-dated Ethereum options premium. I was actively managing the positions behind that premium, not treating it as automatic income. It was compensation for taking risk, and I wanted to keep the decisions measured.
In Ep 1, I started with a $5.38 result and a very small base. This week showed what a few decent premium…
Ep 1: Starting the TerraMatris Trading Journal With $5.38
I started the TerraMatris trading journal on August 23, 2023. The first week was small, which was exactly the point: start with real capital, make the decisions visible, and see whether an options approach can build a base over time.
By August 24, 2023, the portfolio showed $5.38 in income. It is not a number to celebrate too hard, but it is a real first entry. I was more interested in keeping the first step controlled than in forcing a larger result.
Where TerraM stoodThe TerraM token was quoted around $0.86. Liquidity was very limited, so I treated that as a reference…